Visa Forecasts U.S. Holiday Retail Sales to Rise 4.5%, Strongest Since 2021, With Average Gift Spending of $777
Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) on November 5 released its 2026 U.S. Holiday Spending Outlook, forecasting that U.S. holiday retail sales will rise 4.5% year over year in November and December, the strongest holiday sales growth since 2021.
The outlook expects prices for holiday-related goods to rise approximately 3.4%, with inflation-adjusted holiday spending increasing 1.1%. Visa said solid income growth and household wealth continue to support consumers' capacity and willingness to spend, even as inflation influences where holiday dollars go.
Consumers plan to spend an average of $777 on holiday gifts this year, up from $736 in 2025, an increase of 5.6%. At the same time, shoppers remain value-conscious: roughly one-third of consumers earning less than $100,000 say they plan to switch to lower-cost brands or stores for holiday gifts compared with last year.
"Consumers are heading into the holidays with the capacity and willingness to spend, even if they're being thoughtful about where those dollars go," said Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa. "Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending, and while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season." He added: "Consumers are still spending, but they're making deliberate choices about where their holiday dollars go. That combination of healthy spending and continued focus on value is likely to define this holiday season."
The report also found that more than half of survey respondents put travel and live events at the top of their holiday wish lists, yet only 15% say they are prioritizing spending on experiences, compared with 27% prioritizing physical gifts. VBEI analysis of anonymized Visa credit card transactions found that higher travel costs are contributing to that disconnect: households earning more than $200,000 were the only income group to increase both holiday airfare bookings and spending in September, with trips booked up 29% and spending up 38% from a year earlier, while lower-income groups pulled back sharply.
Because VBEI's holiday sales measure focuses on retail and excludes travel and dining, dollars that might otherwise have gone toward holiday trips could instead flow toward physical gifts and other merchandise, the report said. Visa noted the outlook contains forward-looking statements and actual results could differ.
(Source: Visa)
Source: Visa
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：Visa总部大楼（2025年8月摄）。Sarah Stierch 摄，CC0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: Visa headquarters (August 2025). Photo by Sarah Stierch, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.
