UNDP Report: Waiting Until After El Niño Strikes Could Roughly Double the Cost of Protecting Vulnerable Households, to $73 Billion
The UN Development Programme (UNDP) released a report, 'The Cost of Waiting in a Warmer World: Why Climate Investment Cannot Wait for the Next Disaster,' on November 10 during the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye. Acting now to protect vulnerable households in developing countries ahead of a potentially record-breaking 2026/27 El Niño could cost up to US$36 billion, the report estimates; waiting to respond until after the damage is done could cost up to US$73 billion, roughly double.
Without policy intervention, the report estimates, a 5% increase in food prices across developing economies could push 37 million people below the upper-middle-income poverty line in 2026. Modelling by UNDP and the OECD puts the broader cost of climate inaction at up to US$6 trillion, while more ambitious national climate policies combined with development measures could lift an additional 175 million people out of extreme poverty by 2050. 'El Niño threatens the essentials people depend on: food on the table, clean water and a secure livelihood,' said UNDP Administrator Alexander De Croo. 'We have warnings, and we know that acting early can protect millions of people and save billions of dollars. People facing these risks cannot afford delay.' Speaking in Antalya on November 13, he added: 'Not acting is the most expensive climate policy.'
El Niño, the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific, disrupts weather worldwide; strong events typically bring droughts, floods and extreme heat that hit food production and prices. On November 12, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center assessed that this year's El Niño keeps strengthening, with the odds of a 'super El Niño' near 60%.
(Source: UN Development Programme)
Source: UN Development Programme
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：干旱龟裂的土壤（资料图，CC BY 3.0，澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织，经 Wikimedia Commons）。 / Photo: Drought-cracked soil (file photo; CC BY 3.0, CSIRO, via Wikimedia Commons).
