Cov Kev Xaiv Tsa Zaum Kawg ntawm NYT / Siena Ua Ntej US Midterms: Cov Democrats Ua Tus Thawj Coj hauv Rau ntawm Xya Senate Battlegrounds, Trump Kev Pom Zoo ntawm 38%
WASHINGTON: Tebchaws Meskas tuav nws txoj kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab xyoo 2026 rau hnub Tuesday, Kaum Ib Hlis 3. Qhov kev xaiv tsa zaum kawg ntawm New York Times / Siena University, uas tau tshaj tawm rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2, qhia tias cov neeg sib tw Democratic ua tus thawj coj hauv rau ntawm xya lub xeev tseem ceeb ntawm Senate thiab sib npaug zoo nrog Republicans hauv qhov thib xya, nrog rau Thawj Tswj Hwm Donald Trump txoj haujlwm pom zoo ntawm 38 feem pua ntawm cov neeg xaiv tsa thoob plaws xya lub xeev.
Hauv Michigan, tsuas yog lub rooj zaum uas Democrat tuav ntawm xya tus neeg uas tau raug soj ntsuam, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed coj Republican Mike Rogers 53 feem pua rau 42 feem pua, qhov sib txawv 11-point thiab qhov loj tshaj plaws hauv pawg. Hauv Texas, Democrat James Talarico coj Republican Ken Paxton 50 feem pua rau 43 feem pua. Hauv Maine, tus neeg sib tw Democrat Troy Jackson coj Republican Senator Susan Collins 51 feem pua rau 45 feem pua. Hauv Ohio, tus qub Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown coj Republican Senator Jon Husted 49 feem pua rau 44 feem pua. Hauv Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton coj Republican Senator Roger Marshall los ntawm tib qho sib txawv 49-rau-44. Hauv Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola coj Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 48 feem pua rau 46 feem pua, thaum nyob hauv Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek sib npaug nrog Republican Ashley Hinson, 48 feem pua rau 47 feem pua.
Tsib tus neeg Democrats uas muaj feem ntau dua yog nyob rau hauv cov xeev uas Republicans tuav tam sim no, suav nrog Texas thiab Kansas, uas tsis tau xaiv cov Democrats senators txij li xyoo 1988 thiab 1932. Piv nrog rau kev soj ntsuam thaum lub Cuaj Hlis, Democrats tau txhim kho lawv txoj haujlwm hauv rau ntawm xya lub xeev: Maine tau tsiv los ntawm peb lub ntsiab lus Republican ua ntej mus rau rau lub ntsiab lus Democrats kom zoo dua, Michigan tus Democrats ua ntej nthuav dav los ntawm tsib lub ntsiab lus mus rau 11, thiab Kansas tau tsiv los ntawm sib npaug mus rau tsib lub ntsiab lus Democrats kom zoo dua. Alaska yog tib lub xeev uas Democrats poob av, lawv qhov kom zoo dua nqaim los ntawm kwv yees li xya lub ntsiab lus mus rau kwv yees li ob. Thoob plaws xya lub xeev, Democrats tau muaj cuaj lub ntsiab lus zoo dua Republicans txog kev tswj hwm tus nqi ntawm kev ua neej, cov neeg teb cov teeb meem tau raug suav hais tias yog ib qho ntawm lawv qhov kev txhawj xeeb tseem ceeb nrog rau kev lag luam.
Thoob plaws lub tebchaws, qhov nruab nrab ntawm RealClearPolling ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb uas tau ua txog rau lub Kaum Hli 30 qhia tau tias Democrats ua tus thawj coj rau Republicans 52 feem pua rau 43.1 feem pua ntawm daim ntawv xaiv tsa hauv Congress, thaum NBC Xov Xwm kev tshawb fawb uas tau ua rau lub Kaum Hli 28-30 tso qhov sib txawv ntawm 52 feem pua rau 45 feem pua. Cov qhab nia tshiab kawg ntawm Cook Political Report tso 222 lub nroog hauv Pawg Neeg uas nyiam Democrats thiab 195 nyiam Republicans, nrog 18 pawg raug cais ua pov thawj.
Tag nrho 435 lub rooj zaum hauv Tsev Neeg Sawv Cev thiab 35 lub rooj zaum hauv Senate yog nyob rau ntawm daim ntawv xaiv tsa, thiab cov txiaj ntsig yuav txiav txim siab seb cov Republicans puas tseem tswj hwm Congress rau ob xyoos uas tseem tshuav ntawm Trump lub sijhawm thib ob. Cov Republicans tam sim no tuav Senate 53 txog 47, yog li Democrats xav tau plaub lub rooj zaum kom tau feem ntau; kev sib faib 50-50 yuav ua rau Republicans tswj hwm vim tias Tus Lwm Thawj Coj JD Vance tuaj yeem pov npav sib npaug. Feem ntau ntawm Tsev Neeg Sawv Cev xav tau 218 lub rooj zaum.
Kev pov npav thaum ntxov twb tau teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv nruab nrab lub sijhawm lawm: raws li University of Florida's Election Lab, ntau dua 51 lab tus neeg Asmeskas tau pov npav thaum hnub Saturday, Lub Kaum Hli 31, dhau tag nrho cov kev pov npav thaum ntxov ntawm 45.9 lab los ntawm xyoo 2022 nruab nrab lub sijhawm.
Cov kev xaiv tsa New York Times/Siena tau ua txij li lub Kaum Hli 23 txog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 1, los ntawm kev soj ntsuam ntawm 610 thiab 1,215 tus neeg yuav xaiv tsa hauv txhua lub xeev, nrog rau qhov yuam kev ntawm kev kuaj piv txwv txij li 3.3 txog 4.8 feem pua. Cov kev soj ntsuam kuj pom tias cov neeg xaiv tsa uas tau txiav txim siab thaum lub hli dhau los tau nyiam cov Republicans los ntawm cuaj lub ntsiab lus, uas yog ib qho kev ceeb toom tias kev hloov pauv lig tseem tuaj yeem tseem ceeb hauv kev sib tw uas sib cais los ntawm ob peb lub ntsiab lus xwb.
Qhov chaw: GSM · Tebchaws Meskas (Qhov kev tshaj tawm lus Askiv · Qhov kev tshaj tawm lus Suav qub)
Duab: 美国国会大厦西立面与格兰特纪念碑（资料图）。Mike Peel 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / The west front of the U.S. Capitol with the Ulysses S. Grant Memorial in Washington, D.C. (file photo). Photo by Mike Peel, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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