Final NBC Poll: Democrats Lead 52% to 45% in Fight for Congress as Trump Disapproval Hits 60%
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3. A final national NBC News poll released on November 1 found that 52% of registered voters prefer Democratic control of Congress, against 45% for Republicans - a seven-point Democratic lead, two points wider than in NBC's previous survey. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot.
The poll was conducted October 28-30 among 1,000 registered voters, using telephone interviews and online questionnaires delivered by text message, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. It was conducted by Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates and Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
The survey also put President Donald Trump's disapproval rating at 60%. Affection for the alternative is limited, however: only 29% of respondents viewed the Democratic Party positively, compared with 38% for Republicans - suggesting the Democratic lead draws more on dissatisfaction and a desire to check the governing party than on enthusiasm for the opposition.
Other final-week surveys point the same way. An Ipsos poll conducted October 22-26 put Democrats ahead 53% to 44% among likely voters; only 25% of adults approved of Trump's handling of the economy and 20% of his handling of the cost of living, and Democrats were preferred on economic management by 34% to 28%. A Pew Research Center survey from September 28 to October 4 found 63% of Democratic backers describing themselves as extremely motivated to vote, against 46% of Republican backers; 44% of registered voters said their congressional vote was a vote against Trump, while 19% saw it as support for him, and 84% rated the economy as very important.
A national party preference does not translate directly into seats: the House is elected across 435 districts and the Senate state by state, so whether the polling lead becomes congressional control depends on the distribution of votes and on turnout. Ballots cast on November 3 will settle the question. Details of the NBC poll are at Final NBC Poll Gives Democrats Seven-Point Lead Before Midterms.
Related: Final Senate Battleground Polls: Democrats Lead in Six of Seven States, Trump at 38%
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
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