Follow-Up: San Juan River Forecast to Crest at 22 Feet Tonight, Topping the 1911 Record: Mandatory Evacuations in Pagosa Springs

A river flood warning issued at 9:30 a.m. MST on Sunday, November 1, by the National Weather Service office in Grand Junction says major flooding is forecast on the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs in Archuleta County, southwestern Colorado, in what the service calls a Particularly Dangerous Situation. The warning runs until Monday evening, November 2.

At 9:00 a.m. Sunday the river stood at 7.8 feet, against a flood stage of 10.5 feet. The river is expected to rise above flood stage Sunday afternoon and crest at 22.0 feet Sunday night, then fall below flood stage early Monday afternoon. The warning's flood-history comparison is the 17.8-foot crest of October 5, 1911, the highest on record, when flooding destroyed much of the town of Pagosa. NOAA's river forecast model puts the crest near 19.7 feet, also above the 1911 record. At 20.0 feet, the Weather Service notes, access roads to the San Juan River Ranch are flooded and some homes become inaccessible.

Mandatory evacuation orders remain in effect for all low-lying areas along the San Juan, Rio Blanco, Navajo and Piedra rivers, according to Archuleta County's published update, and the Town of Pagosa Springs has issued a mandatory evacuation order for residents, businesses and visitors in flood-threatened areas, particularly along the San Juan River corridor and in low-lying areas. In a further update on Sunday morning, the county said: "If you are in an evacuation zone, you must leave now. This includes all low-lying areas along the San Juan, Rio Blanco, Navajo, and Piedra Rivers. Do not wait for the water to rise. Do not wait for another warning. Leave now." The county is bringing in additional search-and-rescue resources, including ground and air support and the Colorado National Guard. Vicki Shaffer of the Archuleta County Sheriff's Office said help may not be able to reach people in time on Sunday evening and Monday morning.

In town, San Juan Street and Hermosa Street closed to through traffic at 6:00 a.m. on November 1, and businesses along the river in downtown Pagosa Springs closed from 6:00 a.m. Sunday until further notice. The Weather Service also has flood warnings in effect for south central Archuleta County, covering the Navajo River, the Little Navajo River and Stove Creek, until Monday evening, and a winter storm warning is in effect for the San Juan Mountains, where high elevations may see snow.

This is the second severe flood to hit the area in under two weeks. In late October, flooding around Pagosa Springs caused damage the sheriff described as unprecedented, road damage across southwestern Colorado was estimated at $65 million, and the Colorado Department of Transportation applied for federal emergency relief funds to repair the road network. The county expects nearly three inches of rain from Sunday into Monday morning and says this event may exceed the last one. GSM will follow the crest and its aftermath.

Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)

Photo: 图：美国国家气象局（NOAA）圣胡安河 Pagosa Springs 水文站（PSPC2）11月1日发布的水位预报图：预报今晚洪峰约21.9英尺（紫色预报线），将超过1911年17.8英尺的历史纪录线；该河段洪水位为10.5英尺。观测数据由美国地质调查局（USGS）提供。美国联邦政府作品，公共领域。 / NWS (NOAA) forecast hydrograph for the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs (gauge PSPC2), issued Nov 1: the river is forecast to crest at about 21.9 ft tonight (purple forecast line), above the 1911 record of 17.8 ft; flood stage is 10.5 ft. Observations courtesy of the US Geological Survey. US federal government work, public domain.

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