National Support at Weakest Level Since 2020 in RNZ-Reid Research Poll
An RNZ-Reid Research poll published around 6 October 2026 put support for New Zealand's governing National Party at 25.9 per cent, its weakest result since the 2020 election, adding pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon a month before the general election. Reuters reported that the opposition Greens climbed to 14.8 per cent, Labour slipped to 30.8 per cent, and the smaller Opportunity Party polled 5.5 per cent, just above the threshold for entering Parliament without an electorate seat.
If those numbers were repeated on election day, 7 November, neither the National-led bloc nor a Labour-Greens-Te Pati Maori grouping would hold a majority in the 120-seat Parliament, potentially giving Opportunity a pivotal role in coalition talks. Luxon has previously said National was unlikely to work with Opportunity because of its tax policies.
The online poll surveyed 1,000 eligible voters between 24 September and 1 October, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. A 1News-Verian poll released the previous week suggested a Labour-led combination could reach 65 seats against 59 for the incumbent bloc. Together, the surveys point to another close contest in which a coalition government is all but certain under proportional representation.
With a month to run, the parties are releasing fiscal and cost-of-living policies in quick succession. The governing party's slide and the rise of a potential kingmaker have prompted fresh analysis of the post-election combinations that could emerge.
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 奥克兰皇后街街景。摄影：Krzysztof Golik，CC BY-SA 4.0，来源：Wikimedia Commons
