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Indiana's 5th District Rating Downgraded: Sabato's Crystal Ball Moves Spartz Seat to 'Leans Republican'

Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · States · GSM News

Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted Indiana's 5th Congressional District from "Safe Republican" to "Leans Republican" on October 20, one of nearly 30 rating changes the University of Virginia Center for Politics publication has made this cycle. Analyst Kyle Kondik said the move reflects a more competitive environment for Representative Victoria Spartz.

The Cook Political Report, Fox News and Inside Elections have also adjusted their outlooks on the race. Spartz's Democratic challenger is state Senator J.D.

Ford. Spartz won re-election in 2024 by nearly 20 points, and the district north of Indianapolis remains Republican-leaning even under the new rating.

Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)

Photo: 印第安纳州议会大厦(图片:Wikimedia Commons,CC BY-SA 2.0,作者 w_lemay)/ Indiana Statehouse (Photo: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0, by w_lemay)

Story Timeline
  1. 2026-10-21Indiana's 5th District Rating Downgraded: Sabato's Crystal Ball Moves Spartz Seat to 'Leans Republican'This story
  2. 2026-10-23Follow-up: Trump-Aligned Super PAC Spends $112,300 on TV Ads as Indiana's 5th District Race Heats Up
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