NRF Forecasts Holiday Sales to Top $1 Trillion for the First Time, Up 4.2%
The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released its 2026 holiday sales forecast: retail sales from November 1 through December 31 are expected to grow 4.2% over 2025, to $1.013 trillion, passing $1 trillion for the first time. Holiday sales in 2025 totaled $972 billion, up 3.1%.
The federation says the forecast is built from economic indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages and inflation, and excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. Chief Economist Mark Mathews notes that the 4.2% pace is above the 20-year average of 3.1%, excluding the outsize pandemic years; nearly half of the increase is expected to come from higher prices, with the rest from real spending growth.
On hiring, the NRF expects retailers to bring on 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, close to last year’s estimated 356,000 — a cautious pace. The federation flags higher gas prices, persistent inflation, interest rates and consumer debt as the main risks to the outlook.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay says American consumers remain resilient and that the pattern is expected to continue through the 2026 winter holidays. Holiday sales account for about 19% of the U.S. retail industry’s annual sales, and more for some retailers. (Source: National Retail Federation)
Source: National Retail Federation
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：位于纽约先驱广场的梅西百货旗舰店。CC BY 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: Macy’s Herald Square flagship store in New York. CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
