The Eve in Abu Dhabi: Two Deadlocks in One City — U.S.-Brokered Ukraine Talks Open on November 10 as a Comprehensive U.S.-Iran Settlement Remains Out of Reach
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates, November 9 — In a conference hall at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the President of the United Arab Emirates, put it plainly: the region should prepare for a long period of uncertainty. In the same city, the next day, November 10, delegations from the United States, Russia and Ukraine are due to sit at the same table for their first trilateral talks since February. The two diplomatic appointments in Abu Dhabi fall less than 24 hours apart, and they concern two unfinished wars — one in Ukraine, one in Iran. Gargash's judgment on November 9 is the shared footnote to both negotiating tracks: the United States is mediating both conflicts at once, and no party on either track has publicly said that an agreement is near.
1. Gargash's address: "a long period of uncertainty," on the eve of the talks
Reuters reported on November 9 that Gargash told the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate that a comprehensive political settlement between the United States and Iran to end the war of more than eight months appeared difficult to achieve. "We should ... prepare for a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order can be taken for granted," he said.
Gargash said the consequences of the U.S. war with Iran "may persist for a long time," requiring the UAE to invest in its "defensive capabilities, the maintenance of credible deterrence, and stronger international security partners." He said the UAE had opposed the U.S. war with Iran from the outset, and that the war had demonstrated the importance of the UAE's defence and security cooperation with Washington. He thanked France, Israel, Greece, Egypt and India for their "support and solidarity" during Iranian attacks earlier this year; Reuters noted that some of those countries helped defend the UAE against Iranian attacks earlier this year.
Gargash added that prolonged regional uncertainty would require sustained diplomatic engagement by the UAE with Iran and with other regional and international partners, and that some of that engagement in the near term might be transactional by necessity, without specifying what that might entail. It was not his first such warning: speaking in Manama, Bahrain, on November 1, Gargash said the UAE was "braced for the worst" amid regional fears that the United States was on the verge of striking Iran and that Tehran would retaliate by attacking Gulf states.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's remarks on Sunday, November 8, rhymed with Gargash's a day later. Reuters reported that Rubio said he did not believe a breakthrough in diplomatic efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war was imminent. The same day, before departing for Paris and a Group of Seven foreign ministers' meeting, Rubio offered a differently worded assessment of the Ukraine track, detailed below. Two tracks, two temperatures, from the same secretary of state on the same day: that is the starting point for understanding this week's diplomacy in Abu Dhabi.
2. The talks opening on November 10: who is coming, and to discuss what
According to Reuters reporting on November 2, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced that the United States would bring together Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11 for working-level negotiations. A senior U.S. official told Reuters the discussions would cover four items: post-war security agreements, de-escalation, humanitarian measures, and ending the war. The lead U.S. negotiators are Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The round is the first trilateral meeting since February: earlier formal trilateral rounds were held in Abu Dhabi in January and February of this year, and the most recent round took place in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 17–18. After the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28, Washington's diplomatic focus shifted to Iran and the trilateral process was suspended until now.
Delegation line-ups were confirmed piece by piece in the week before the talks. Russia: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky would lead the Russian delegation; a Kremlin announcement carried by Interfax on November 7 listed Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin and military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov among its members. Russia's agreement to the round traces to President Vladimir Putin's meeting with Witkoff in St. Petersburg on October 21 — a conversation of about three hours after which Putin said Russia was ready to resume trilateral talks after November 10. Peskov first named Abu Dhabi and an early-November window on October 23, saying the talks would focus on security guarantees for both Russia and Ukraine after peace is reached, and not ruling out European participation.
Ukraine: according to the Office of the President of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a 90-minute call with Witkoff and Kushner on November 4 to prepare for the round. Ukraine's delegation is led by chief negotiator Rustem Umerov, with Kyrylo Budanov and Sergiy Kyslytsya, the head and deputy head of the president's office, and Davyd Arakhamia, leader of the ruling party's parliamentary faction. Zelenskyy said after the call: "The negotiations must move forward at full throttle to bring this war to an end as quickly as possible. Ukraine is ready to take the necessary steps. Our proposals are clear, and we have given them to the American side." Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on November 6 listed Kyiv's priorities in Abu Dhabi as security guarantees, de-escalation in the Black Sea, an energy ceasefire, the return of Ukrainian children, and prisoner exchanges. Kyiv's November 4 readout also confirmed that delays in U.S. deliveries of Patriot interceptor missiles were a central topic of the call.
Europe's place in the format changed. The talks were first announced as a three-party format, and European Union officials had said the EU would not take part in that format. On November 8, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot told French radio station RTL: Europeans would be well represented, and "France will be in Abu Dhabi to take part in these discussions." He did not name France's representative. Reporting on November 9 said the European Commission and the European Council would send a joint team of senior officials, led by Bjoern Seibert, chief of cabinet to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Anna-Maria Boura, chief foreign policy adviser to European Council President António Costa. Before that, Kushner said on November 5 that U.S. officials had held "productive and substantive discussions" in Brussels with Ukrainian, NATO and European partners on security guarantees for Ukraine and a broader European security architecture; Ukrainian, U.S., European and NATO officials also met in Brussels on November 4–5 on post-war reconstruction and 2027 funding needs.
3. Pre-talk signals: "some progress" on Ukraine, "not imminent" on Iran
Speaking to reporters in Homestead, Florida, on November 8 before flying to Paris, Rubio said discussions on what the post-war "security architecture" of Ukraine and Europe could look like had made some advances. "What is the postwar security infrastructure of Ukraine and more broadly of the European continent going to look like?" he said, adding that this was the progress the president had been alluding to — while setting the limit himself: "Nothing's been finalized yet, and maybe some progress can be made in Abu Dhabi" when Kushner and Witkoff are there. The State Department announced on November 6 that Rubio would visit Paris from November 8 to 10 for the G7 foreign ministers' meeting; the Associated Press reported that the Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran conflict were both among the meeting's main topics.
Russia's public pre-talk signals centred on two points. The first was delegation rank: deputy foreign ministers and the military intelligence chief were formally announced by the Kremlin as members. The second was Peskov's statement around November 7 that Moscow sincerely hoped President Donald Trump would continue his Ukraine peace efforts despite the Democratic Party's victories in the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, which he called an internal U.S. matter. The battlefield did not slow as the talks approached: on November 7–8, Russia and Ukraine traded large-scale missile and drone strikes, and Zelenskyy commented publicly on X about Russian attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure. The security-guarantee question Rubio named — what, after a ceasefire, would stop the war from restarting — remains the core issue that every side's public documents keep naming and none has published a text for.
The Iran track's pre-talk signals were markedly colder. Rubio said on November 8 that U.S.-Iran diplomacy was not at the verge of a breakthrough and described Tehran's demands as unrealistic. Iran's latest move was to deliver a new nuclear and peace proposal to the United States through Qatari mediators: according to Al Jazeera's November 9 summary, Tehran proposed that the document be discussed only after Washington meets Iran's seven standing demands, and the United States is reviewing it.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi previously explained the logic of the plan — built on the seven-day plan Iran announced at the UN General Assembly in September — to Al Jazeera: "On day one, the US implements a set of measures. On day two, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and navigation will be restored to what it used to be." Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed on November 2 that the seven-step plan submitted in September had been condensed so it could "be implemented within two days." In its original structure the plan called for the United States to end its blockade of Iranian ports, Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. waiver on Iranian oil sales, the cancellation of new sanctions, and then talks on other issues; President Trump rejected the plan in September. Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei has publicly listed Tehran's seven conditions as a full halt to hostilities and military strikes, the release of frozen Iranian assets abroad, an end to the naval blockade, the lifting of economic sanctions, a drawdown of U.S. forces in the region, war reparations, and an end to threats and interference in Iran's affairs. Araghchi also spoke with 12 regional counterparts over 48 hours in the past week, and warned ahead of November 9 that Tehran would respond forcefully if the United States resumed attacks.
The mediation channel enters the White House schedule directly on Monday, November 9: Trump is due to hold a closed-door meeting at the White House with Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, Qatar's prime minister and foreign minister. Qatar is the principal intermediary between Washington and Tehran. The Qatari prime minister has said publicly that mediation efforts continue, that the United States has the intention and willingness to "take steps towards finding a solution," and has urged the two sides to accept a good deal over a perfect one. Separately, Israel's Channel 12, as reported via The Guardian on November 7, said Qatar was promoting a mediators' draft framework under which the United States would lift the Hormuz naval blockade and unfreeze part of Iran's assets, while Iran would invite International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to nuclear facilities and reopen the strait, with Washington moving first. No side has publicly confirmed accepting that framework; it is presented here as a media-reported draft, not as an agreed arrangement.
4. How the U.S.-Iran track got here: eight months, three stalls, and one strait
Over the course of 2026, the sticking points on the Iran track have recurred three times.
First, the war itself. The United States and Israel launched sudden military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026. Iran then closed the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil chokepoint, and the United States imposed a blockade on Iranian ports; the war has now lasted more than eight months. The closure and repeated tanker attacks run through it. In GSM's earlier market reporting, on November 2 alone, international oil prices fell more than 7 per cent as hopes for U.S.-Iran talks rose — Brent crude settled at $104.77 a barrel and U.S. WTI at $96.46 — a measure of how directly negotiating headlines now move the daily economics of the stalemate.
Second, the brief June thaw. According to Al Jazeera's November 9 summary, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in Islamabad, Pakistan, in June, after Qatari and Pakistani mediation, setting a 60-day window for talks; the memorandum collapsed within weeks, sanctions and blockade arrangements largely reverted to their pre-MoU state, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets and oil-sale waivers granted under it became part of today's seven conditions.
Third, the exchange of plans since September. Iran presented its seven-step (seven-day) plan at the UN General Assembly in September; Trump rejected it in September. On October 28, Iran rejected a U.S. seven-day plan for Hormuz. On November 1, Iranian negotiators left Doha after days of talks with Qatari mediators; Reuters reported on November 2 that the talks had ended without a breakthrough but that contacts continued and a draft proposal was being circulated, with Qatari mediators travelling to Tehran that evening to discuss draft versions with Araghchi. President Masoud Pezeshkian said around November 9 that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had granted the government the powers needed to pursue negotiations to end the conflict. As of November 9, the facts all sides acknowledge in common are only these: contacts have not stopped, a draft is circulating, and no side has announced acceptance of the other's text.
The nuclear file is the deepest layer. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi told the UN Security Council on October 27 that the agency had identified no repair or reconstruction at facilities damaged since June 2025, but still could not verify the amount, composition or location of Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, and could not confirm that no safeguarded material had been diverted. The agency's last verified figure is 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity, as of June 13, 2025. Inspectors were withdrawn for safety when the attacks began in June 2025 and have been unable to work normally in Iran since; safeguards work continues only at the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Iran's position is that it will return to nuclear talks only after it verifies that all its conditions have been met, and that no transfer of its highly enriched uranium stockpile was raised in the talks or agreed. The U.S. position is that Iran's centrifuge and enrichment posture must be on the table from the start if sanctions relief is in play.
On November 6, the State Department's Rewards for Justice programme, publicised by U.S. Central Command, offered up to $20 million for information on Iran's nuclear facilities, equipment, personnel and their movements — an arrangement that itself shows Washington filling its information gap on the current state of Iran's programme by public solicitation while inspectors cannot enter. The verification status above is the IAEA's public account; the agency has also said it has no credible evidence of a coordinated Iranian nuclear weapons programme, and this report draws no inference about the stockpile's current state beyond the IAEA's account.
The Gulf states' daily life is also paying for the stalemate, and the bill is printed on Abu Dhabi's own flight boards. According to a November 8 summary of flight status and airline schedules, Etihad Airways has extended cancellations on its Abu Dhabi–Riyadh and Abu Dhabi–Dammam services through November 19, and Emirates cancelled all of its November 8 Dubai–Riyadh and Dubai–Dammam flights. The U.S. Mission to Saudi Arabia issued a security alert on November 7 warning of an increased threat of attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis and noting earlier attacks on Saudi civilian airports; Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, closed after attacks in early October, has operated only on a reduced, partly reopened basis since October 25. These facts and Gargash's phrase "a long period of uncertainty" describe the same condition from two sides: the uncertainty is not a diplomatic formula — it is already written into the timetable.
5. Key timeline (2026)
January–February: Formal U.S.-Russia-Ukraine trilateral rounds are held in Abu Dhabi; the most recent round follows in Geneva on February 17–18, without a major breakthrough.
February 28: The United States and Israel launch military operations against Iran; Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, the United States blockades Iranian ports, and the trilateral process is suspended.
June: The United States and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding in Islamabad after Qatari and Pakistani mediation, setting a 60-day talks window; it collapses within weeks.
September: Iran presents its seven-step (seven-day) plan at the UN General Assembly; Trump rejects it.
October 21: After meeting Witkoff for about three hours in St. Petersburg, Putin says Russia is ready to resume trilateral talks after November 10 and proposes discussing a post-war "security framework."
October 23: Peskov announces that trilateral talks will be held in Abu Dhabi in early November, focused on security guarantees, with European participation not ruled out.
October 27: IAEA Director General Grossi tells the UN Security Council that the amount, composition and location of the 440.9 kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium (last verified figure, June 13, 2025) still cannot be verified.
October 28: Iran rejects a U.S. seven-day plan for Hormuz.
November 1: Gargash says in Manama that the UAE is "braced for the worst"; Iranian negotiators leave Doha and a draft begins circulating.
November 2: Witkoff announces the November 10–11 Abu Dhabi trilateral talks and their four agenda items; Reuters reports the same day that U.S.-Iran contacts in Doha ended without a breakthrough but continue; international oil prices fall more than 7 per cent that day.
November 4: Zelenskyy holds a 90-minute call with Witkoff and Kushner; Ukrainian, U.S., European and NATO officials meet in Brussels on November 4–5.
November 5: Kushner calls the Brussels discussions "productive and substantive," covering security guarantees for Ukraine and a European security framework.
November 6: Sybiha lists Ukraine's Abu Dhabi priorities; the State Department announces Rubio's November 8–10 Paris trip for the G7 foreign ministers' meeting; a U.S. reward of up to $20 million is posted for information on Iran's nuclear programme.
November 7: The Kremlin publishes the full Russian delegation list; Peskov comments on the U.S. midterm elections and Moscow's hopes for the peace push; Russia and Ukraine trade large-scale missile and drone strikes ahead of the talks.
November 8: Rubio speaks on both tracks on the same day (Ukraine: advances on a security architecture, nothing finalised; Iran: no breakthrough imminent); Barrot confirms France and Europe will take part in the Abu Dhabi talks; UAE carriers cancel Saudi-bound flights in large numbers.
November 9: Gargash warns at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate of prolonged uncertainty and a difficult U.S.-Iran settlement; Trump holds a closed-door White House meeting with Qatar's prime minister (per the White House schedule and Al Jazeera's summary); the EU joint officials' team for the Abu Dhabi talks is reported.
November 10–11: The U.S.-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks take place in Abu Dhabi at working level, with French and EU teams joining related discussions.
6. Back to Abu Dhabi
Abu Dhabi on November 9 therefore holds two unfinished pieces of business at once. For one of them, the table is already set — the dates, the venue, the four agenda items and the delegation lists of three parties plus Europe are all public; what remains in dispute is contained in the words "security guarantees," for which no text has been published. For the other, there is not yet even a table: proposals travel between Doha, Tehran and Washington priced in days — one day, two days, six days, seven days — the reopening of a strait depends on whose steps the other side accepts first, and inspectors have been unable to stand normally inside Iran's nuclear facilities for close to a year and a half. Gargash said the conclusion out loud on the eve of the talks: neither a decisive resolution nor a stable regional order can be taken for granted. The next morning, Witkoff and Kushner will walk into a conference room in Abu Dhabi — with another negotiation, in the same city, that still has no conference room behind them.
(This report states facts and the parties' public positions only, without commentary.)
Related: UAE's Gargash Warns of Prolonged Regional Uncertainty, Says U.S.-Iran Settlement Appears Difficult
Related: U.S.-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks set for Abu Dhabi, November 10-11
Source: Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, IAEA
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 阿布扎比天际线（资料图）。（Wikimedia Commons／CC BY 2.0）|The Abu Dhabi skyline (file photo). (Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 2.0)
