Follow-Up: Datafolha Projects Lula Victory in Brazil Runoff as Electoral Court Count Reaches 99.79%, With Lula at 51.76%
BRASILIA, Brazil — Vote counting in Brazil's presidential runoff on Sunday, October 25 is now nearly complete. The latest snapshot of Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) count shows 99.79% of polling sections processed, with incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 51.76% of valid votes to 48.24% — 64,093,998 votes to 59,735,422, a margin of 4,358,576 votes, or 3.52 percentage points. Brazilian polling institute Datafolha projected at 8:46 p.m. Brasilia time that Lula had won the runoff, saying its election-night model, built on TSE returns grouped by geographic and municipal characteristics, showed the trailing candidate could no longer close the gap; the call was reported by Folha de S.Paulo. Datafolha's projection is a statistical call by a polling institute, not the electoral court's formal certification, and the final result remains subject to the TSE's official declaration.
The lead had changed hands repeatedly during the evening: Lula led 51.16% to 48.84% with just over 5% counted, Flávio Bolsonaro moved ahead with 50.01% at 13.65%, Lula retook the lead at 50.01% with 47.62% counted, and by the three-quarter mark his advantage had grown to 2.18 percentage points, widening further to 3.52 points as the count neared completion. If the final result is confirmed, Lula will begin a fourth presidential term.
Counting had earlier been paused for about two hours after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered voting hours extended in parts of Bahia state, before resuming. In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%, with neither clearing a majority. Brazil has about 158.7 million registered voters. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence over a coup plot after his 2022 defeat. With 0.21% of sections still to be processed, GSM will continue to follow the campaigns' formal responses and the electoral court's final confirmation.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：巴西总统 Lula（右）2026年2月与俄罗斯总理 Mikhail Mishustin 会面握手（资料照片）。俄罗斯联邦政府（government.ru）发布，CC BY 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons 发布。/ Brazil's President Lula (right) shaking hands with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in February 2026 (file photo). Photo by the Government of the Russian Federation (government.ru), CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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