First Datafolha Runoff Poll: Bolsonaro Leads Lula 52 to 48 in Valid Votes
On October 13, Brazil's benchmark pollster Datafolha published its closely watched runoff numbers. Folha's English edition reported that in valid votes, Flavio Bolsonaro leads incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by 52 percent to 48 percent — Datafolha's first survey of the runoff phase, following its October 8 release showing 49 percent to 45 percent in raw intentions. Newsmax's report on the same poll confirmed the underlying figures: counting all responses, Bolsonaro had 49 percent and Lula 45 percent, with 5 percent planning a blank or spoiled ballot and 1 percent undecided, in a survey of 2,520 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus two points.
The poll landed as Lula's camp tried to reverse the discouragement of its first-round defeat: the October 11 March for Democracy, organized by students, fan communities, social movements and left-wing parties, stretched across 12 blocks of Sao Paulo's Paulista Avenue, with rallies in 76 cities, according to Folha.
Bolsonaro's lead has structural support: eliminated right-wing candidates Caiado, Zema and third-place finisher Cury have all endorsed him, as have the Novo, Podemos and Republicanos parties and the Uniao Brasil–Progressistas federation. He is also courting the centrist MDB, whose figures including Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas have agreed to meet him to discuss an endorsement.
Caution is still warranted: pollsters systematically understated Bolsonaro by about two points in the first round. A separate PoderData/Aya poll also showed him ahead, 49 percent to 44 percent. With 12 days to the October 25 vote, abstention and the final movement of centrist voters could still rewrite the ending.
Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：巴西利亚三权广场。摄影：Senado Federal，CC BY 2.0，取自 Wikimedia Commons
- 2026-10-06Brazil Election Upset: Flavio Bolsonaro Wins First Round, Faces Lula in Oct. 25 Runoff
- 2026-10-13First Datafolha Runoff Poll: Bolsonaro Leads Lula 52 to 48 in Valid VotesThis story
- 2026-10-17Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro Pledges 200 Billion-Real Fiscal Adjustment Without Touching Social Spending Ahead of Oct. 25 Runoff
- 2026-10-18Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Face Off in First Runoff Debate in Sao Paulo Tonight
- 2026-10-18Follow-Up: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Clash Over Crime, Probes and the Economy in First Runoff TV Debate
- 2026-10-19Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Trade Corruption Charges in First Runoff Debate Ahead of October 25 Vote
- 2026-10-21Bolsonaro's Lead over Lula Narrows Ahead of Brazil Runoff: Flavio at 45%, Lula at 44% in First Quaest Poll After TV Debate
- 2026-10-25Follow-Up: Brazil Votes in Tight Presidential Runoff: Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro in a Race That Could Reshape the Region
- 2026-10-25Follow-Up: Brazil Runoff Voting Extended Two Hours: Supreme Court Justice Orders Polls Open Until 7 p.m., Vote Count Paused
- 2026-10-25Follow-Up: Brazil Runoff Count Resumes: Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro 51.16% to 48.84% With Over 5% Counted
- 2026-10-25Follow-Up: Brazil Runoff Count Nears Halfway: Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro 50.01% in Dead Heat as Lead Swings Twice
- 2026-10-25Follow-Up: Lula Widens Brazil Runoff Lead to 51.09% Over Flávio Bolsonaro With Over 75% of Sections Counted
- 2026-10-25Follow-Up: Datafolha Projects Lula Victory in Brazil Runoff as Electoral Court Count Reaches 99.79%, With Lula at 51.76%
- 2026-10-25Follow-Up: Brazil's Electoral Court Declares Lula Winner of Presidential Runoff With 51.76% at 99.86% of Sections Counted, Leading Flavio Bolsonaro by Over 4.36 Million Votes
- 2026-10-25Lula Wins: From Shoeshine Boy to a Fourth Presidential Term — The Life and Political Career of Brazil's President
- 2026-10-25Follow-Up: Leaders Congratulate Lula on Brazil Runoff Win, Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum Says 'The Brazilian People Won'
- 2026-10-25Follow-Up: Flávio Bolsonaro Refuses to Concede Brazil Runoff, Says He Will Seek Annulment of the Vote
- 2026-10-26Brazil Runoff Final Result: Lula Wins Fourth Term With 51.79% as Bolsonaro's Son Rejects Outcome
- 2026-10-26Follow-up: Flavio Bolsonaro Refuses to Recognize Brazil Runoff Result, Says He Will Seek Annulment as Brazil ETF Plunges Nearly 15% in Asia Trade
- 2026-10-28Follow-Up: Trump Says He Approves of Brazil's Flávio Bolsonaro Coming to the U.S.; State Department Official Says Entry Visas Will Be Granted to Him and His Family
- 2026-10-28Follow-Up: Flavio Bolsonaro Arrives in Miami, Greeted by Brother Eduardo, as His Brazilian Passports Are Cancelled
