Follow-Up: Coastal Flood Warning Takes Effect Sunday as King Tides Near 8 Feet; Metrolink to Suspend Coast Service Next Week

A Coastal Flood Warning issued by the National Weather Service office in San Diego takes effect at 5 a.m. Sunday, October 25, and runs through 1 p.m. Thursday, October 29, covering the Orange County and San Diego County coasts in California. The weather service expects significant coastal flooding in both counties, with low-lying property inundated and some shoreline erosion possible during the morning hours. Adjusted for unusually warm ocean water, tides are forecast to reach 7.5 to 8 feet or higher and could break modern tide records in both counties.

As GSM reported on October 23, the Newport Beach City Council, in Orange County, California, declared a local emergency on October 19 and activated its Emergency Operations Center ahead of the October 26-28 king tides. According to the city's adjusted tide outlook, Newport Beach expects its highest tides on Monday (Oct. 26) at 9:15 a.m. at about 8.3 feet, Tuesday (Oct. 27) at 9:50 a.m. at about 8.5 feet, and Wednesday (Oct. 28) at 10:28 a.m. at about 8.4 feet - roughly 1.8 feet above astronomical predictions that do not account for the warm ocean water. Actual water levels along the coast have recently been running about 1.25 to 1.75 feet above predicted tides.

Rail service will be among the first casualties. In its official service advisory, Metrolink said that because of the forecast high tides, Orange County Line trains will not operate between the Laguna Niguel/Mission Viejo and Oceanside stations from Monday, October 26, through Friday, October 30; trains will instead originate and terminate at Laguna Niguel/Mission Viejo, and no alternate bus transportation will be provided on the suspended segment. The three affected stations - San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente and Oceanside - normally see three trains a day in each direction. Metrolink said qualified personnel will conduct frequent inspections of the segment and that crews and equipment will be staged to respond to potential impacts on track infrastructure. Amtrak's Pacific Surfliner trains may be delayed by about 30 minutes between the San Clemente Pier and Oceanside through October 27 because of signal issues and weather conditions.

During the same period, a coastal flood advisory covers Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, where significant to moderate beach erosion is expected. A coastal flood advisory for the San Francisco Bay Area and Monterey Bay runs from Saturday morning through Thursday afternoon, with inundation of up to about 1.9 feet above ground level possible near shorelines and tidal waterways.

Coastal cities are racing to prepare. According to the Los Angeles Times, Newport Beach is running 30 to 40 trucks a day hauling sand from the Prado Dam area to build protective berms at The Wedge, aiming to deliver 2,000 cubic yards by Saturday, and has placed thousands of sandbags in flood-prone parts of Balboa Island. Long Beach has begun dredging Alamitos Bay and pumping sand onto the Peninsula beach, and repairs to its damaged boardwalk have begun. Caltrans has placed 4-foot-tall sand-filled barriers beneath Coast Highway at Crystal Cove, where a crack has developed in the slope, and the two lanes closest to the cliff remain closed. In the Bay Area, a section of Highway 37 will close for 55 hours this weekend for emergency work to raise the flood-prone roadway.

According to the Los Angeles Times, Reinhard Flick, a researcher at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said water levels running this far above prediction for this long are, as far as he knows, unprecedented. Doug George, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said the warnings and advisories are real and that conditions are favorable for flooding, urging the public to take them seriously.

Source: GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)

Photo: 沿加州橙县 San Clemente 海岸行驶的 Amtrak 太平洋冲浪者号列车，下周停开路段即沿此海岸线（资料图）。照片：Prayitno 摄，CC BY 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / An Amtrak Pacific Surfliner train along the San Clemente coast in Orange County, California, the stretch where service will be suspended next week (file photo). Photo: Prayitno, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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