New Zealand Final Polls: Labour Leads National 30.7% to 26.4%; Opportunity Party Holds Balance at 5.1%
WELLINGTON, New Zealand — Final polls before New Zealand's general election on Saturday, November 7, show neither major bloc able to govern alone, with the centrist Opportunity Party potentially holding the balance of power. The final poll by The Post and Freshwater Strategy put Labour at 30.7 percent, ahead of National on 26.4 percent; the Opportunity Party was on 5.1 percent, just above the five percent threshold for entering Parliament; the Greens were on 13 percent, New Zealand First on 12 percent, ACT on 9.8 percent and Te Pāti Māori on 2 percent. On those numbers, National, ACT and New Zealand First would hold a combined 59 of the 120 seats in Parliament, two short of the 61 needed to govern, while Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 55.
The final 1News–Verian poll put National at 30 percent and Labour at 29 percent, with the Greens on 16 percent, ACT on 10 percent, New Zealand First on 8 percent and Opportunity on 6 percent; on that modelling, the governing coalition would win 58 seats, three short of a majority, with Opportunity's seven seats holding the balance. A Taxpayers' Union–Curia poll put National at 28.9 percent and Labour at 28.4 percent, with the two blocs tied on 60 seats each, meaning a hung Parliament.
Voters' top concerns were the cost of living, cited by 64 percent, and healthcare, cited by 45 percent. Early voting began on October 26, and by Tuesday, November 3, 1,250,057 votes had been cast, compared with 1,007,928 at the same point in 2023, according to Electoral Commission data. Party leaders made their final appeals on Thursday, November 5: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the election would go down to the wire, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins said Labour hoped to form a Labour-led government before Christmas; the final televised debate was held on Thursday night. Polls close at 7 p.m. on Saturday, November 7, and the final count, including special votes cast from overseas, will be released on November 27.
This outlet published a preview of the New Zealand election on November 4; this report covers only the new developments — the final three polls and the closing campaign appeals.
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Source: The Post / Freshwater Strategy poll
Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)
Photo: 图：新西兰惠灵顿的国会大厦与「蜂巢」大楼。Wikimedia Commons，CC0。 / Photo: Parliament House and the Beehive in Wellington, New Zealand. Wikimedia Commons, CC0.
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