Allianz Trade: Gulf War Damage Tops $200 Billion, Cumulative Economic Gap Could Reach $790 Billion by 2030

A report released on November 9 by insurer Allianz Trade estimates that the war that began on February 28, 2026 has caused more than $200 billion in physical damage across Gulf countries, and that the Gulf Cooperation Council's cumulative economic shortfall over 2026-2030 could reach $790 billion, equivalent to a 5.9 percent gap in GDP compared with the pre-war growth trend.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have put significant pressure on Gulf economies, particularly the energy sector and infrastructure, the report said. More than 80 energy facilities in the region have been affected, mainly in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, with around one-third severely damaged. Allianz Trade forecasts the GCC economy will contract by 4.0 percent in 2026, with a cumulative budget deficit of about $475 billion over the period and a reconstruction bill of about $200 billion.

The report also forecasts $380 billion to $400 billion in domestic infrastructure and defense spending through 2030. The projected $790 billion represents lost economic output between 2026 and 2030 compared with pre-war forecasts, rather than additional physical destruction.

Related: Follow-up: Trump Says Gulf States Prefer Keeping Iran Blockade After Call With Qatar’s Prime Minister

Source: Allianz Trade

Published by GSM · USA (original Chinese edition)

Photo: 图：科威特 Mina Al-Ahmadi 炼油厂夜景（资料图）。图：Grubb，公共领域，经维基共享资源 / The Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery in Kuwait at night (file photo). Photo by Grubb, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

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